Update to Risk On/Off Posture - Equity Rally Under Severe Pressure + Bitcoin Update

IBD says Risk Off, Money Flow getting more Red on Higher Time Frames, Distribution days mounting . . . . . . . . .

Author

David Young
August 20, 2025

In partnership with

This Is Not Investment Advice

Reviewing Updates to Risk On/Off Posture

First, a few reminders:

  • We do not make predictions

  • We do always strive to view with an open mind the tools and resources that we know are effective

Here is a snapshot of the top ten stocks from the Investors Business Daily Top 50 after the close on 8/19:

This is not a bullish sign. We have stated repeatedly since the ‘Melt Up’ began in mid-April that one of the key warning signs to watch for is Leading Stocks getting hit hard. That is starting to happen now. 

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There were several important aspects of The Big Picture published by IBD after the 8/19 session. Let’s take a look at them.

Here are notes on some Top Industry Groups:

QQQ Daily

For me personally, I am maintaining the cautious stance and defensive posture. In my view - equities started to see very notable distribution a couple weeks ago and now we may be seeing the follow through - i.e. the Accumulation/Distribution warning signs apparently were accurate.

Bitcoin Weekly

  • $117.6Kish

  • $116.4Kish

  • $111Kish

  • $109.8Kish

  • $108.7Kish

  • $107Kish

  • $95-98Kish