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The Market Right Now - Hedging
The Watch List has been performing well the last several weeks, but it is rather apparent it has been hitting a ceiling just as the major averages fail to break out of their ranges established since late October.
We got the nice bump up and more bullish posture early January in the Nasdaq, but where is the Follow Through? I added some protection last two sessions.
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Nasdaq General Market Indicators
Short SMCI
Buy to Open QQQ 03/20/2026 600.00 P
Buy to Open PLTR 03/06/2026 100.00 P
Thoughts and observations:
Not a crash prediction . . . . no predictions . . . . the three above plus the metals hedge only about 2% or so of “this portfolio” of active capital . . . . still about 70% Long with the rest in cash and these hedges . . . . .
Of the Mag7 . . . . GOOG only one in a bullish structure and pattern flexing solid Relative Strength . . . . maybe I’m wrong . . . . .
Risk On adjusted rate cut expectations . . . . but Powell’s jawbone still in play . . . . could go either way . . . . I don’t know what Powell will say or do . . . .
Pros have very low cash levels . . . . American society already plowing record amounts into equities . . . . positioning overall has really accelerated last two weeks into a very aggressive and exuberant stance . . . .
For me the hedge is mostly about entry . . . . need a solid or above average entry point . . . . if the market soars the hedges melt but I’m already 70% Long . . . . if a 2-3% slide becomes an 8-12% correction . . . . I’m already in with good Short oriented entries . . . . “piling on” with hedges after a dump is in motion leaves most of the meat on the bone already taken . . . .
My 3rd and 4th use of options in the last handful of years really (one nice winner recently and one small loss) . . . . ETFs are flawed in my view . . . . SMCI Industry Group has tanked, RS is terrible, can’t get above 10 Week EMA and stick . . . .
Still holding metals hedge . . . . sold about a third quickly for tiny gain . . . still holding remainder which is currently underwater . . . .
For some of the most influential stocks and QQQ . . . . simply not seeing bullish Accumulation/Distribution patterns . . . . many if not most still have bearish Higher Time Frame Money Flow issues . . . . 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . .
BTC looks like the $80Kish is absolutely still on the table as it remains sluggish . . . . metals could at a minimum take a rest or breather if not correct meaningfully . . . . JGB/JPY Wild Cards . . . . is it even possible for MOVE to go lower . . . . adding a little protection not in a panic by any means . . . .
