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The Market Right Now - Vulnerable Industry Groups
I have not been following the news and ins and outs of Private Credit recently. The stocks teased a meltdown and then had a very low Volume bounce through the “Santa Rally”. I’m going to look at them here just like I would any other stock along with presenting four Industry Groups with Single Stock Short candidates.
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Here is the Industry Group that holds the primary players directly connected to Private Credit:
APO Weekly
OWL Weekly
KKR Weekly
Here are four Industry Groups struggling and falling in the rankings recently:
Thoughts and observations:
I am not currently Short any of these . . . . I was short SMCI and covered in profit . . . . . these are Short candidates being tracked and analyzed for potential entry . . . .
Not aware of any of the drama or rumors around Private Credit . . . . if there are any currently . . . . just looking at the equity . . . . APO continues to try and snuggle 10 Weekly EMA but is still vulnerable, probably has the least exposure according to the market . . . . . both OWL and KKR have repeatedly failed to hold 10 Weekly EMA . . . . . OWL and KKR are both diving on rising Volume with the Money Flow Red on the Weekly . . . . . does not look promising for OWL or KKR absent a very bold reversal very soon . . . . .
For me personally . . . . . all else equal . . . . and again the MOST important thing is the overall market trend . . . . IF there is a time for me to add more hedges . . . . and/or IF there is a time for me to switch to Risk Off . . . . then at acceptable entry points would consider Shorts on OWL and KKR . . . .
Looking at the four isolated Industry Groups beyond the Private Sector stuff shown above . . . . you’ll notice all have been declining sharply in the rankings . . . . . here are 4x Short candidates for me . . . . . but again same thing . . . . all else equal . . . . overall market trend and Risk On/Off are major drivers . . . . but at an acceptable entry am considering Shorts on the following . . . . ZETA, MSI, SMCI, TBCH . . . . .
75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . . .
This is preparation and always ongoing work . . . . I am not as of yet flipping to Risk Off . . . . . managing Risk and evaluating hedges/trades . . . .
