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Lately you may recall me emphasizing being flexible quite a bit. I have no idea what is going to happen in the next 30 to 90 days in the markets. For whatever the reasons may be . . . . . my senses are still strongly leaning that there is more potential movement (on a relative basis) to the downside than there is to the upside in the short to intermediate term.
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In a nutshell - the way I see it at this precise moment (leaning heavily on Higher Time Frame Money Flow and Accumulation/Distribution) it appears to me Risk On, and especially Bitcoin, could move more (on a relative basis) to the downside (when focusing on risk management and capital preservation) in terms of size/magnitude than they are likely to do so to the upside. Make sense?
Translation: (and maybe I am dead wrong) the risk to me is more being caught with your swimming trunks around your ankles when the tide goes out than it is with “missing out” on equities soaring to AND maintaining new ATHs for a legit period of time.
Let’s check a few Higher Time Frame charts to see what’s up:
OWL Weekly
KKR Weekly
ORCL Weekly
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Thoughts and observations:
If I ignore the last two weeks of nonstop Fed happy talk . . . . . . these charts on Higher Time Frames if anything are telling me to prepare to go the other way and strongly consider doing so in a very substantial way . . . . . . if I ignore all the noise . . . .
On Lower Time Frames the shrieking OWL is starting to really chirp in my ear that I should strongly consider getting Short if it drifts and glides up against resistance on Low Volume . . . . . or at a minimum to be on high alert to very aggressively Short OWL if the current rally attempt falters . . . .
Not trying to create drama or stir the pot . . . . .viewing with an open mind . . . . . . . although the Hopium has been pumping at a very intense level in the atmosphere the last two weeks in terms of rate cuts, etc. . . . . . . . the Price/Volume and Accumulation/Distribution at this PRECISE MOMENT look like low Volume relief rallies approaching key junctures and resistance for many Risk On assets . . . . . in other words yeah things can continue to pop higher and grind but with VOL Gamma dynamics and participants looking to secure gains . . . . . . if this low Volume rally does not continue things could move violently in the other direction . . . .
To be abundantly clear though I have a few modest Shorts set up I am not saying that I already have or am placing massive Shorts right here or now . . . . what I am saying is that if these weak attempts don’t cut it that I am more than prepared to get more aggressive hedging with Shorts . . . . ding ding ding this IS the rally attempt Right Here and Right Now so if it fails . . . . . then what?
Bitcoin we laid out the path 82-85 bottle then 85.5 and 88.6 and that zone 91-92 well guess what it is chilling inside 91-92 with 96Kish the obvious target above so if it doesn’t go get it then . . . .
