This Is Not Investment Advice
Remember Private Credit? Let’s see what story the charts are trying to tell us and if we should consider doing anything about it.
What is this Owl trying to chirp to us?
Crash Expert: “This Looks Like 1929” → 70,000 Hedging Here
Mark Spitznagel, who made $1B in a single day during the 2015 flash crash, warns markets are mimicking 1929. Yeah, just another oracle spouting gloom and doom, right?
Vanguard and Goldman Sachs forecast just 5% and 3% annual S&P returns respectively for the next decade (2024-2034).
Bonds? Not much better.
Enough warning signals—what’s something investors can actually do to diversify this week?
Almost no one knows this, but postwar and contemporary art appreciated 11.2% annually with near-zero correlation to equities from 1995–2024, according to Masterworks Data.
And sure… billionaires like Bezos and Gates can make headlines at auction, but what about the rest of us?
Masterworks makes it possible to invest in legendary artworks by Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more – without spending millions.
23 exits. Net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5%. $1.2 billion invested.
Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
OWL Weekly
Owls apparently can make all sorts of sounds. One of them is the shriek. Is this OWL shrieking about something?
KRE Weekly
SKRE Weekly
APO
APO Weekly
KKR
KKR Weekly
Thoughts and observations:
The “Private Credit Issue” did not go away and the market is painting a fairly clear picture . . . . we got a plunge in September and then a mini-rally that has clearly failed to set a new Higher High or Higher Low locally . . . . so what is next?
My hearing is shot from the military but for some reason more and more I can hear sounds coming from OWL . . . . .
OWL is getting crushed let’s be blunt, APO (higher RS and less exposure likely) doesn’t look like it is on solid ground, and KKR is very wobbly and vulnerable . . . . . so where do these firms get funding . . . . . . oh let’s look at KRE it’s not exactly roaring higher now is it . . . . .
For my own decisions I am on alert . . . . . looking for potential entries on Short KKR and Long SKRE . . . . .
