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This Is Not Investment Advice
The Market Right Now - Who Cares About Calling Bottoms and Tops We Want Results
When will it turn around? Is the bottom in yet? When is it going back to new ATHs? Why isn’t Bitcoin going up? With all due respect I don’t care about any of those questions nor the answers. What I care about is what is happening right now and what the market is telling us right now.
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Here are a couple of points that we do know because they are factual at this point:
The “low” recently at $80.5Kish was NOT followed by a strong Upside Volume week within the first three weeks of the “low” - currently in Week 4
In recent trading action since the break below $100K and since the “low” at $80.5Kish - Bitcoin did not make it up to $96Kish on the counter trend bounce
We do have elements of fear and panic in the market as shown by BitcoinMagazinePro.com:
Given the above - it appears to be entirely plausible that the market does not like this recent dip to $80.5Kish as “the low” or “a bottom” or whatever term one wants to use. We didn’t see a full bounce up to $96Kish and we did not see a full bounce up to a declining 50 Week EMA. So what will it take? Let’s look at the Weekly Chart below:
Thoughts and observations:
Weekly Chart above . . . . two Blue Lines one on left shows an actual local bottom that formed and generated a legit rally . . . . one on right is the current “local low” . . . .
One on left see two Red Dashes showing the gradual progression (look at Orange Arrows) of a “new low” set followed by a lower low . . . . . this is key . . . . . 2nd low formed as the Money Flow on the Weekly started to turn higher (it wasn’t Green but turning Green on LOWER Time Frames and shifting the Weekly) . . . .
Blue Line on the right (current scenario) we can see (Orange Arrow) that when this “new low” came in the Money Flow was not turning around and heading Bullish . . . . in fact it is still not turning around as of yet . . . . we also do NOT see a High Volume and Bullish Green Weekly Candle and Volume Bar follow up this “new low” and it has been almost four weeks now . . . .
So what does the market want?????? . . . . . one consideration is that the market might want to see NEW LOCAL LOWS but accompanied by sellers running out of gas as shown by shifts starting with Lower Time Frame Money Flow gradually turning around the Weekly Money Flow so that it starts to trend higher (doesn’t have to be Green yet but moving that way) . . . . market might be waiting for a BULLISH DIVERGENCE when price keeps setting new hyper-local lows but sellers become exhausted and the selling momentum dries up (think opposite of tops when there is no Volume and stocks are floating, eventually they reverse big time lack of buyers continuing on) . . . .
Think of it this way . . . . . if the market isn’t done selling then why do I want to step in as the hero and try and declare that it’s an opportune and appropriate time to start buying?
