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The Market Right Now - Bitcoin
There is no one single metric that performs magic or accomplishes anything on its own. In my view this is true with Bitcoin or anything else in the financial world. In fact - it is dangerous in my view to cling to certain metrics, particularly time based ones like “the cycles”, and assume something “will happen” because “we are xx weeks into the cycle” or something along those lines.
That said - there is one metric that has an interesting long and storied relationship with Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin Weekly
Below is an extended Weekly Chart for Bitcoin showing the 50 Week EMA:
Thoughts and observations:
Again . . . . there is no single metric that rules all . . . . in fact metrics and tools are just that we need to view all relevant and credible info and tools with an open mind . . . . .
That said we do see the Exchange Rate in and out of a romantic relationship with the 50 Week EMA . . . . and it is simple and straightforward . . . .
Orange Rectangle on the left . . . . the 2021 Double Top heading towards FTX . . . . we see TWICE very nice respect for the 50 Week EMA and some bounces . . . . then we see it break below it and try to fight back above it multiple times . . . . then we see a High Volume flush down where it breaks below it decisively and goes on to set multiple new lows . . . .
Yellow Rectangle . . . . Bitcoin attempting to form a Base on Higher Time Frames . . . . it sneaks above the 50 Week EMA and then snuggles it repeatedly and persistently but stays above . . . . and then by being patient we ultimately see a gorgeous break above and off the 50 Week EMA . . . . but it gets better as that break is followed by a beautiful massive Volume surge and move higher even still . . . .
Big Blue Square . . . . pretty obvious Bitcoin tested the 50 Week EMA thoroughly not once but twice and has recently plunged below it . . . Volume picked up on the way down . . .
Bitcoin and Fed Balance Sheet
Thoughts and observations:
Large Orange Rectangle . . . . . we have a general and broad relationship where “Bitcoin goes up” as the Fed Balance Sheet grows . . . . . and this was also a period of time where QE was in its latter stages and then we had a massive Black Swan with Covid and the money pump from that . . . .
To the right of the Orange Rectangle we see the realities of QT sink in . . . . yet Bitcoin performs rather well actually looking at an extended period of time . . . . . so why did it continue on and how much of the late 2025 sluggishness is connected to simply getting tired of QT and a flat Balance Sheet . . . . . .
One consideration that even despite QT Bitcoin identified and focused on a new catalyst . . . . let’s call it Public Sector Acceptance . . . . and maybe this with ETF availability kept things going for a while . . . . but RIGHT HERE and RIGHT NOW might be worth considering if it is floundering and flopping in the breeze searching for a new catalyst or the next catalyst . . . .
Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed
Thoughts and observations:
First the metric . . . . essentially this is showing you periods where there was a rush and surge of coins being sold by longer term holders . . . . and this is CRUCIAL . . . . and this is given the context and scenario presented to long term holders at that time . . . . .
In the Orange Rectangle we see big surges in long term distribution . . . . but they are spread out and generally aligned with local/regional tops that kind of “make sense” in that there was a massive price surge and we got the inevitable correction from that . . . .
Blue Rectangle . . . we are seeing these surges occur more frequently within a shorter period of time . . . . and we see the most recent surge stay and remain elevated . . . .
Of course the obvious question is Why now are we seeing more persistent long term holder distribution . . . . again this is given what these holders are experiencing right now . . . . maybe it has something to do with searching for what is the next catalyst . . . .
So what does this all mean and where are we going? Great questions. Some final thoughts and observations on that:
HODLers if you will are there and aren’t going anywhere . . . . but how much are they buying per week, month, year, etc. at this point?
We do not have an auto-bid as of yet underneath the Exchange Rate in the way that 401Ks and other things support Equities . . . it is coming but reality is right now we do not have that . . . .
Last major surges to the Upside with Volume were related to the election and “Bitcoin being embraced by governments”, etc. . . . . .
Biggest question in my view is what is the next catalyst . . . . yes Central Banks will expand Balance Sheets at some point . . . . remember though a lot can happen in the markets in 30 days and a whole lot can happen in 90 or 180 days . . . . so one might not want to underestimate for how long governments and politicians can play games and kick cans down the road . . . .
In my humble view the “next thing” should and needs to be Adoption and Usage . . . . market WILL respond if/when it sees transactions, collateral usage, address usage, Lightning Network usage, etc. move . . . .
HODLers are limited in terms of impact on the price . . . . the pros and institutions don’t care about “stacking sats” and “hanging out with Bitcoiners” . . . . . yes BTC does compete for attention and investor capital with Gold, Silver, and all of Risk On for that matter . . . . GLD/SLV set up and traders/investors make the moves but don’t think they won’t ultimately also align with M2 growth at the margin . . . . Bitcoin is many things to include a self sufficient accounting mechanism, portable, fungible, hard to counterfeit, easy to store, divisible, SOV, Medium of Exchange, Unit of Account, and more . . . . and Gold and Silver are none of those things in the modern era . . . long past time to let the Wall St. stuff do its thing and show the world how to use BTC and why to use it . . . .
Feels like chunks of time were squandered by nearly all looking at each other . . . . waiting for “the cycles to play out” . . . . well guess what life changes and markets change . . . .
