Bitcoin and Finance Charts, Trading, Investing - 7/14

Steepen, JGB down, BTC record high . . . . . . . . . . . . whole lotta layin' at the beach with no sunscreen this summer for Risk On so far . . . . . . . . .

Author

David Young
July 13, 2025

This Is Not Investment Advice

Bitcoin Blasts Past $109.5Kish . . . . . . . Risk On Tumbles But Leading Stocks Hold Up Decently

Regarding the steepen/flatten dynamic for this week:

It’s not “lowering rates” or the numeric value of rates per se that matter to Bitcoin in the near and intermediate term but rather just the directional push of the Fed cutting the FFR - it’s the most potent action one could take to steepen the curve further and as fast as possible.

Remember, the BOJ is asking you to buy JGB 10YR yielding you 150 BPS a year when inflation is running at 2-4% annually and land values have turned the corner after decades of money printing. Ready to dive in?

Silver is moving aggressively. Money Flow flipped back to Green on the Weekly.

JGBs started getting real shaky again, Risk On took a breather, Bitcoin soared with a steepener and JGB nosedive . . . . . . . Silver chasing BTC and gaining. Stocks got hit but damage to leaders was relatively modest (but very much so worth monitoring very closely) and breakouts continued.

Not to obsess about Japan, but there are many factors here. Yen Carry is still in play with real yields negative, and an appropriately Hawkish BOJ could make things easier for the Shadow Dove. I agree with Powell (not stumping for him overall) if he thinks a too easy BOJ means his potential cuts are really throwing gas on the fire with many assets at all time highs. It’s still a very fluid situation in Japan.

Bitcoin Weekly

Potentially forming an extremely bullish Weekly Candle right now with volume rising and closing way in the upper half of the weekly range - let’s see how it shakes out Sunday night heading into Monday.

Bitcoin 4HR

Let’s look back at the action and see how strong or mehhhhh it was.

The Yellow Circles highlight the move off of $105.9Kish and $109.5Kish - two areas we were focused on for a while and still are to some extent. We can see there was a reaction with Volume and Money Flow when Bitcoin broke above. In my opinion this is positive and good to see, though I wouldn’t say there was a tidal wave or tsunami of Volume and Money Flow. Nonetheless - a positive reaction so far.

Also encouraging to see another volume burst come in after the break above $109.5Kish taking it even higher. Time will tell. No guarantees.

Recent breakout along with a strong YTD thus far, players might be asking if/when we have gone too far . . . . . . . let’s consult the BitcoinMagazinePro.com flagship MVRV-Z Score to find out:

Compare the blue circles in the chart above and chart below showing Global M2 YOY growth vis a vis Bitcoin YOY growth:

Notice any similarities? Both kinda hanging out? Both in launch mode? Time will tell.

Miners Turning The Corner?

Fear and Greed Index by BitcoinMagazinePro.com now flashing Extreme Greed:

Bitcoin Bottom Line:

  • We have an aggressive breakout underway potentially, so ideally we want to see aggressive bullish action in a general sense . . . . . . . . . translation: it’s not bullish if we see an ole’ “sizzle and fizzle” now that we finally busted $109.5Kish

  • $118.4Kish and the zone between $114.4Kish and $115.8Kish and up to $120Kish

  • Monthly Money Flow basically hugging the border between Red and Green, Weekly Money Flow looks quite strong at the moment, and Daily is swinging Green recently

  • In my humble opinion there is an element of correlation (how much???? good question) between the Steepen/Flatten dynamic and JGB prices (down sends BTC up seemingly along with higher Bond VOL anywhere in the world) . . . . . . . . . . so we just had a very bullish week in this regard . . . . . . . this COULD reverse (BOJ intervention dovishly caving, curve flattening with Fed drama and econ data confusing) so I suppose I am saying celebrating rather than grinding might be troublesome at some point as things can swing in both directions

  • Exuberance and giddiness is accelerating, not primary buy/sell factors/signals but let’s be honest people are already getting giddy and we haven’t even drawn in retail yet (and might not in a way people envision)

Risk On/Off

IBD rightly points out that a handful of leading stocks did take some fairly big punches this week, though it was far from a bloodbath for growth investors:

High Yield Debt did take a few lumps as the week wore on:

The QQQ has actually put in two quite bullish weeks out of the last three weeks.

Risk On/Off Bottom Line:

  • Some leading stocks did take some solid hits later half of the week as did high yield debt . . . . . . in my view worth monitoring very closely to see if healthy consolidation or start of correction

  • As has been the case there a million reasons why we should see a sharp correction . . . . . . . . . put/call ratio strikingly low . . . . . . . . . . . . giddiness and exuberance showing up in sentiment . . . . . . . . . “it’s gone up so much it has to come down at some point” . . . . . . . . . . gamma possibly flipping and running the other direction . . . . . . . . possible Bond VOL spilling over . . . . . . BuyBack Beast on hiatus . . . . . . . . earnings/econ data not warming up enough . . . . . . . too much consolidation in AI trade not enough troops rowing the boat . . . . . . . . and the list goes on and on

  • An emerging factor to consider is the behavior of BTC and “the Bitcoin stocks” meaning equities rising more or less solely because of the entity stacking Bitcoin . . . . . . . . . . . . most of this is not operating cash flow growing but it can and will impact the indices IF Bitcoin were to advance consistently (IBD even mentioned MSTR in a buy point)

  • Steepen/Flatten not out of the woods

  • My senses still align along with the ‘Melt Up’ and when we encounter consolidations and/or corrections it is highly likely to show up with Leading Stocks getting hit on volume and the indices trading in “sizzle and fizzle” mode with early gains fading into the close or worse . . . . . . . . eyes on this, A/D overall, price/volume of course, and all the other factors of course Money Flow - at this precise moment looks ok just some profit taking and consolidation but needs to be watched very closely (not taking anything for granted just conveying what I see now)

  • Copper, Silver, Bitcoin, IBD Leading Stocks, and some real behemoths in the QQQ . . . . . . . . all trading fairly bullishly on Higher Time Frames . . . . . . . so the sheer force of this is something to consider if you are getting hyped up about laying down some shorts

STX Daily

STX is perking up again . . . . . . . careful and cautious if interested as it takes orders from the King, still has not advanced out on its own in my opinion.

Stacks Stablecoins

CCJ Weekly

MP Weekly

I am not long. When it comes back to Earth I might consider getting long.

UEC Weekly

QBTS Weekly

Mining Update

  • Purchased more machines, paid in cash

  • No current straddles, will assess if/when we enter a new zone/range for expansion of Volume Profile and Value Area High/Low (straddle the highs and lows) - candidates are $109.5Kish, $115-$120K, $130-$137K and conversely the $95-$98K zone and $90Kish. My shorts would be bigger and bigger at $95-98Kish and then $90Kish if needed.

  • $115-$120K as per the above under evaluation 

  • holding long USD as hedge/trade

  • UVIX back on my radar, no position currently

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