Let the market tell/show us what is next

My senses continue to ask if we are still in search of a legit Bullish Reversal . . . . meaning all of the recent rally attempts/moves didn’t kick off from a firm, highly anticipated anchor . . . . . could never get enough Money Flow cookin’ on Higher Time Frames . . . . . do we need to see for real sellers start getting exhausted on Lower Time Frames with price setting new local lows but on reversing momentum . . . . time will tell . . . . .

Glassnode seems open to the idea that Gamma dynamics could pin it below $90Kish and above $75Kish . . . .

$84.2Kish in the short term could determine if we do test that $80.5Kish hard (almost hit recently) . . . . . . . Weekly close might come into play on that in a meaningful way . . . .

$82.5K

$80.5K

$78.3 to $79.6

In my view and for me personally . . . . getting closer for sure to ranges where it may be appropriate to be on high alert for a potential Bullish Reversal to possibly form . . . . possibly . . . .

Kept looking for Follow Through since early January . . . . . never got it . . . . now we start testing support levels again . . . .

Tough to ignore how much impact the broad software category is having and could continue to have . . . . .

Small Caps have been pushed down to short term support . . . . reality . . . . no doubt about it . . . . . open mind . . . .

Junk debt is kinda hanging in there . . . . . even showing more spunk than the rest of the market Thursday and Friday . . . . .

Mining - Metal Ores and Electronic - Semiconductor Equipment got hit hard Friday . . . . . . along with the metals and AAPL pretty much controlled the trading session . . . . . . but it still counts . . . .

Shorts and derivatives bring an element of danger I’m not eager to onboard . . . . . generally I’m inclined to take profits when presented the option particularly a lucrative choice . . . . had Daq opened down 800+ on Thursday I would have likely waited around rest of day to see if any further plunge . . . . . cashed in for now . . . . . closed Puts on QQQ and PLTR and covered SMCI Short . . . . . personally I was open to META/MSFT/TSLA all being down 4% or more but the market befuddlingly likes META for some reason . . . . for now (Lower Time Frame Money Flow turning but we have to wait and see) . . . . and sure enough “could have made more” on QQQ puts waiting longer but that is perhaps THE most dangerous thing with any trade which is excessive greed . . . . . .

Closed metals hedge in profit Friday . . . . . . .

Added a new hedge early Friday . . . . . Buy to Open META 4/17/2026 650.00 P . . . . .

Added another new hedge/trade around 1PM Friday . . . . Buy to Open SLV 9/30/2026 150.00 C . . . and Buy to Open SLV 1/15/2027 200.00 C . . . . . SLV 70 and change at the time . . . . they were down about 80% on the day . . . . my plausible “landing zone” was/is mid 60’s for SLV . . . . grabbed a piece to hedge . . . . in my humble opinion not the time to dance on the graves of metals just yet . . . . though major technical damage generally requires time . . . . .

Though not primary signal such as the Accumulation/Distribution and Money Flow for the indices . . . . . positioning shall we say remains exuberant and concerning . . . . . cash levels for the pros alarmingly low . . . . not much protection in use . . . . as stated in recent weeks here as of now for most gas pedal already pressed down to the floor with both feet . . . .

Leading Stocks such as GOOG and PL are testing 21 EMA Daily as is IWM . . . . . portion of Risk On is under pressure . . . . but Junk Debt seems to be accepting more risk and holding up for now . . . .

Risk On in my view is absorbing no more rate cuts 1st half of year, breakevens rising, and the Hawk Warsh . . . . . . along with the titans and behemoths on a net basis being even more of a drag recently . . . . . in some ways interesting it has held up as well as it has all else equal . . . . . it’s entirely plausible Risk On is forced to shift from drooling over negative real rates a year out to discounting hikes . . . . but it hasn’t completely crumbled as of yet . . . . there were three sessions this week where Risk On “could have” or “should have” tanked but again that VOL Gamma dynamic is in play . . . . . plus on the down days did not see a complete washout of Leading Stocks above and beyond the metals and a couple other groups . . . . a quagmire of unknown duration . . . .

As stated previously it is difficult for me to fade the bullish case completely . . . . when we have multiple areas/sectors showing strong growth now . . . . plus the resources building up longer term like rare earths and uranium . . . . and the top of IBD Industry Groups Right Here and Right Now showing a fairly growth oriented mix . . . . but Risk On is testing short term support no doubt . . . .

Again . . . . #1 question for Risk On has the ‘Melt Up’ recalibrated . . . . perhaps it has or is still in the process of doing so . . . . but that doesn’t mean some fat and slow horses aren’t blocking the running lanes on the turf course when the horses are turning for home and the best ones need room to run . . . . . . a quagmire of unknown duration . . . .

In my humble opinion again am left without being able to isolate a directional bias with my feeble mind . . . . . would say to watch very closely IWM, PL, and GOOG among others and how they respond to 21 Daily EMA . . . . and if they fail on rising Volume could lead to more corrective action . . . . gotta deal with software, metals correcting/consolidating, and rate sensitive sectors absorbing Hawk among other factors . . . . so again the simple math of getting ES to go up is a challenge . . . . open mind . . . . in my view maintaining cash and hedges is more than appropriate . . . . not as of yet seeing Watch List plays dive on high Volume on their own but rather retreat to support when ES leads the whole market lower . . . .

A shift to Risk Off changes from being open to adding new Longs and adding to Longs to hunkering down and waiting . . . . doesn’t change the work done all along . . . . seeking Industry Groups that are rising strongly, performing well, and/or holding up well . . . . stocks showing the best Relative Strength . . . . RS in an absolute sense yes but RS improving pattern is also very nice . . . . . very strong preference for very high Accumulation/Distribution Ratings and Up/Down Volume well above 1.00 . . . . and can’t be a mile above 21 Daily EMA for my potential entry . . . . not easy . . . . 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . . .

If Space becomes a thing . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly. Defensive Posture remains until both are Green consistently and Bitcoin proves it with a series of Higher Highs locally at a minimum.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

Check recent posts for Single Stock Shorts