Let the market tell/show us what is next

Focus in my humble opinion: 1) using Bitcoin to capture excess energy and bring mining to remote areas, 2) using BTC as collateral (huge, huge advantage here and momentum), 3) Lightning Network for near zero fee payments, 4) more credit cards with Bitcoin Cashback as the reward and go from there . . . in a war find battles where you can win next 12-24 months and build momentum . . .

Weekly closes above/below $96Kish are significant and will continue to be in my view . . .

Current scenario trying to carve out Higher Lows and Higher Highs within this current Volume Profile . . . . trying to eke something out but Money Flow on Higher Time Frames is providing that boot on the neck . . . .

$93.6Kish, $91.3Kish

$87.8Kish, $85.9Kish

$81.5Kish, $78.5Kish

MSTR moves came off as relatively rational and reasonable should be more cash earning if you ask me but whatever . . . . end of the day though message was “yes we could have to sell but we don’t want to” . . . . . awww isn’t that nice of them . . . it’s not a negative but not convinced the market tossed aside the dilution cloud lingering above . . . . but good to see a public admission of the scenario in general . . . .

Money Flow and Accumulation/Distribution . . . . in my humble opinion . . . .

Santa gotta make it the entire month . . . .

Market already knows about near 100% odds of a rate cut . . . . market knows very unlikely 12-0 vote some dissent or maybe a lot of dissent . . . . will all come down to how Powell frames any type of “nice path forward” vis a vis DC/Wall Street holier than thou’s projections for the FFR 12 months out . . . . are we gliding nicely from “Restrictive to Neutral” or not . . . . . if not maybe that will in retrospect say a whole bunch about this uber low volume Santa . . . . expecting a shift towards the local Higher Lows and Higher Highs in UST 30Y and explosion in JGBs . . . U.S. longer duration grinds higher (yes I know and still feel Bessent already launched YCC) then seems highly likely those JGBs “are now important” . . . .

Daq up 9/10 sessions and Acc/Dis still rated D . . . .

Senses are that we are starting to see the AtomBeam conundrum play out in real time . . . . but heck maybe they fail but for argument’s sake let’s say there are 4x little AtomBeams competing . . . . meaning someone or something will “make AI better” at the chip level but who and when is unknown (at least 2 years for AtomBeam if they can pull it off) . . . . so Mr. Altman is getting nervous because teenagers might giggle more at AI produced videos using someone else’s tool as he builds ten coal plants to light one light bulb . . . . where I am going is GPU/TPU more UNCERTAINTY which for sure makes me question the spend beyond 2026 because do we even know if we are spending all this money on the right stuff?

It’s obvious that users are impressed but perhaps not completely blown away by AI . . . hence others taking over from ChatGPT . . . so OpenAI looking at cutting costs but if AI is more mehhh without improving the chips what does that say about the total spend if anything?

Commods flinging it in the bullpen . . . . rents and reverse migration deflationary short/intermediate term . . . . . entire Universe knows next Fed Chair in theory is as Dovish as one could possibly be . . . . . 100% rate cut odds . . . . sheesh Powell sure had it set up real nice . . . . . now mehhhhh not so sure . . . . . in May/June you’re telling me Hassett will signal massive cuts (arguably long overdue in terms of National Security and Economic Security) with Core PCE 2.5%+ish, Spooz ATHs, metals/BTC ATHs (if Santa never stops), commods roaring, and Nominal GDP above 4%ish . . . . . . and he can pull this off and keep MOVE comatose and the 10Y below 500 BPs well then so be it he really can walk on water . . . . in a way Risk On is rallying itself right into an overhyped and oversampled box . . . . . time will tell

To me an absolutely reasonable question to ask and analyze is how an OpenAI . . . . or any of these AI firms already worth $20B+ . . . . . can maintain pricing power and avoid a race to the floor . . . . when DeepSeek can potentially do it much cheaper (or another one from China or elsewhere) . . . . when China has a massive edge on power/electricity capacity . . . . . ChatGPT being “beaten” in the rankings recently tells me how it IS possible cheaper knockoffs could win . . . . until the AI “gets a lot better” or someone has an edge . . . . AtomBeam (even if it actually works) not ready for at least two years . . . . so call me crazy how does China NOT gain a lot of ground here next two years or so . . . . but more to the here and now . . . . how does a big spender like OpenAI or MSFT have enough pricing power on AI specifically to avoid credit markets telling them no more today at the bar pal . . . . .

Yes we can see the “QE Trade” plan use reverse migration to temper cost of living especially rents then the new Dove jams “run it hot” down the throats of the market . . . . . one big problem UST longer duration . . . . are we at the point where the Fed tells the market it has no credibility and “run it hot” formally takes over? . . . . not sold on that as of yet especially with mid terms the opposition will make that into a mess . . . .

In my humble opinion my senses are not embracing any type of current directional bias other than the most obvious “excuse” in the world being Santa and hoping the short squeeze takes it even higher . . . . needless to say heavy cash with both Longs and Shorts . . . . waiting on adding to Shorts and focusing on ensuring we find the right Shorts . . . . want Longs (preferably away from AI at least somewhat) in Industry Groups that are rising and focusing on stocks showing the best Relative Strength and Up/Down Volume . . . . . in other words if Santa is a freak and this thing gets really silly we want the stocks that will respond the most . . . feel fairly solid about that now (VIAV, GLUE, HNRG, and a few others still holding smaller positions all along after taking profits off plus more) . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short. Again currently Long BITU and SBIT more weight on SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP

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