Let the market tell/show is what is next

Obviously stuck in a major chop fest (thanks in part to the derivatives and dealer flows/positioning) . . . . . market still hasn’t apparently drifted enough in either direction on Lower Time Frames to elicit a bigger response either way . . . .

$90.3Kish, $91.3Kish

$96Kish

$87.1Kish

$82-$85Kish

$80.5Kish

$78.5-$79.6

When striving as best as possible to view with an open mind . . . . . still can’t shake my senses from sniffing out a trend change since October . . . . look above at Nasdaq General Market Indicators and Higher Time Frame Money Flow (primarily Weekly Charts) . . . . . and again I simply am not seeing strong or increasing Accumulation and positive Up/Down Volume trends . . . . and we can see it with certain Industry Groups and sectors . . . . not a prediction and not a call for a crash . . . . . and yes equities can drift higher still on low to no Volume . . . . . but using prudent judgment and the very strong track record of Accumulation/Distribution and Higher Time Frame Money Flow and one might consider being patient and cautious yet still . . . .

Will be diving deeper with essentially two categories very soon right here . . . . . space . . . . drones . . .

Not trying to upset Rudolph . . . . but Junk Debt just seems to be piling up more time where it looks like it is slowly but gradually fading Risk On . . . . maybe I’m crazy . . .

Realize it continues to sound Grinchish (this newsletter and other content is not intended to give you what everyone on CNBC is saying) . . . . but my senses are still strongly pushing me towards an eventual collision between Risk On and the market’s perception for the Fed Funds Rate a year out . . . . essentially coming to terms with where Real Rates will be in a year (and shorter) . . . . vis a vis Fed realities . . . . not sure shorting/fading Powell just because he’s a lame duck makes sense . . . . if he barks between now and May the markets will listen in my view . . . . most of all not sold the market even knows what to expect with rates . . . . there is this giddiness stacked sky high based on “the Fed easing” . . . . but will they be? . . . . . Accumulation/Distribution and Up/Down Volume telling me market isn’t sold but maybe I’m wrong . . .

When I look at the current Top 20 Industry Groups from Investor’s Business Daily . . . . hard not to notice 5/20 are Medical (granted biotech has an explosive growth component) and one of the top groups is basically a precious metals bet . . . . again not the end of the world but in my view indicative of caution and prudence in motion to some extent . . . . . .

Ok time’s up and vacation is almost over . . . . . time for the 493 and all outside QQQ to start delivering earnings improvements unlike what we have typically ever seen before . . . .

Still seeing some great businesses and the broad concept of the ‘Melt Up’ . . . . will get more in detail on individual plays and Watch List in coming year and moving forward . . . . but again 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . .

In my humble opinion no strong sense of directional bias on Shorter Time Frames . . . . . one thing I would say is that time seems to be dragging on with Risk On literally floating on No Volume searching for a new catalyst . . . . . still have strong whispers in my ears telling me there is a major lack of conviction and investors would act a lot more vigorously with more attractive opportunities . . . .

Still heavy cash and will See You on the Other Side . . . . not sure if Mr. Wong saw that as ice/water/snow that must be traversed or if walking around the edge is an option and if that Red Bird is friend or foe . . . . but somehow we will try and navigate safely to what appears to be a welcoming and pleasant home . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP

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