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The Market Right Now
Santa and Bond VOL doing everything they can to try and counter trend changes and Higher Time Frame Money Flow - can they carry this thing across the finish line for 2025 with another several up days in a row?
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This was something that jumped out at me this week . . . . Citi’s macro surprise index lotta chop in 2025 so again is the market truly convinced of this amazing growth surge supposedly coming in 2026?
Why is gasoline demand rolling over hard?
And although Bond VOL plunged to new multi-year lows, the ole’ 30YR UST is moving in a Risk Offish direction. Globally it looks more like credit is discounting the end of an “easing cycle” rather than the beginning of one.
Bitcoin Monthly
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Cost Basis Distribution Map - Glassnode
From Glassnode note the close connection to the 50 Week EMA here. We bring up the 50 Week EMA because if you look back it actually has been pretty aligned with overall BTC price trends.
Treasury Net Flows - Glassnode
My concerns are not and never have been about Treasuries buying BTC just like an individual or family would as a SOV. My issue is with the super high risk instruments and dilution. Regardless - as shown by Glassnode when the price isn’t pumping there’s a good chance the corporations are not in a rush to buy more. More importantly - we simply are not there yet in terms of having an auto-bid on the exchanges underneath Bitcoin from various allocations.
Glassnode says we need a “renewed influx of liquidity” . . . . I agree . . . . except I’m calling it Higher Time Frame Money Flow - that’s what is most needed to find a bottom and bounce for real.
Fear and Greed Index
Liquidation Heat Map - Two Week Time Frame
Bitcoin Bottom Line;
Let the market tell/show us what is next
Chop fest big time participants that have been very active lately likely getting eaten alive in this action . . . .
We do have elements of fear and panic which on shorter to intermediate Time Frames could be very bullish if the market were to find its way to a location highly likely to produce a violent bounce . . . .
$90.3Kish, $91.3Kish
$96Kish
$87.1Kish
$82-$85Kish
$80.5Kish
$78.5-$79.6
Part of facing the music and maintaining an open mind . . . . worth considering if in aggregate and looking globally the most recent “easing cycle” could be over already . . . .
Weekly Money Flow still Red and arguably gaining steam . . . . major chop fest now hovering within Volume Profile and teasing touching the key levels such as Value Area High/Low . . . . . never soared so doesn’t necessarily need to plunge like “in the cycles” . . . . all those dealers selling all those puts gotta buy spot to hedge . . . . can the market find a location lower that is much more likely to generate a strong counter trend response . . . or will it be front run and happen in a flash?
Market continues to grapple with what catalysts will drive the next legitimate bullish push forward (last one was late 2024) . . . . . Global M2 at the margin on hold entirely plausible . . . . I’m sticking with usage and adoption as the most prudent and lucrative paths forward . . .
Risk On/Off
Investors up to their eyeballs in margin debt in aggregate (I don’t use leverage reminder) as reported by The Market Ear at Zerohedge.com . . . . . one of those indicators where “all is well” until it isn’t:
The Market Ear at ZH also provided insight from BofA essentially trying to rally the troops end of year to get and remain all bullish . . . . . that’s a long ways to 2028:
Top Industry Groups
QQQ Weekly
QQQ Daily
HYG Weekly
HYG Daily
AVGO Weekly
CLS Weekly
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 Leading Stocks currently dominated by silver and gold oriented stocks . . . . not the end of the world . . . . kinda makes one wonder about the explosive growth stocks and where they are or might be . . . . again another sign that being prudent and cautious is not necessarily causing anyone to “miss out on everything” . . . .
Shown above with QQQ/HYG we get these bounces like two days in a row to end the week and the exuberance skyrockets immediately . . . . looking at the Daily charts we do not see any all clear signs and then the Weekly Charts provide reminders of the significance of Higher Time Frame Money Flow . . . .
Equities dump a bit . . . . . asap smash Bond VOL . . . . bump above 50 and 21 and see who bites . . . . . call me crazy doesn’t seem like a ton of participants are biting . .
The Bank of America Netscape analogy and comparison above . . . . I get it . . . . my mind is very open to the possibility of ChatGPT launch aligning pattern wise with Netscape launch . . . . and I get it BofA needs to rally the troops to give them money and stay long and to stay consuming bullish content I get it . . . . but even in that comparison (Blue Circle I added above) there is a transition and corrective phase for multiple months . . . . and the peak is 3+ years away according to this model . . . . so again either way it is not a straight line and perhaps this comparison works best in that the ‘Melt Up’ now is transitioning and correcting along the way . . . . that can mean MONTHS of challenging trading/investing along the way . . . . again why would I be in a rush to chase?
AI is quite limited now . . . . there needs to be core improvements at the chip level . . . . this will impact things . . .
Yes it is Holiday Season and winding down the year the PPT would love to keep this thing elevated . . . . said before and saying it again if institutional investors in aggregate wanted to make large and impactful entries right here and right now . . . . they would not let Holiday shopping and family obligations get in the way . . . . so where is all the Accumulation and Upside Volume?
In a broad context Risk On hasn’t really gone anywhere since October . . . . BUT (very important) there have been some stocks that have gotten smashed since October so again why should I be loading up aggressively now?
Here I am again sounding like the miserable Grinch . . . . . Santa gave the market two up days in a row to end the week so I should be jumping for joy . . . . simply striving to view with an open mind what the market is telling us right now . . . . . Higher Time Frame Money Flow is not motivating me to make any moves on the Long side of significance (outside of BTC possibly setting up soon) . . . .
Truly appreciate any and all that may have followed along here this year or even just recently . . . . . there were some juicy longs along the way and a few decent shorts that cashed . . . . . best achievement though was avoiding the Feb-April meltdown completely while grinding out a few shorts along the way . . . . preserving capital the most important thing . . . . only one week left (goes to Mr. Wong) so on that note we end Mr. Grey’s year with us with (perhaps my favorite) the dazzling, radiant, luminous, and insanely ingenious and brilliant Contemplation . . . . it helps me strive to always strongly vibe with an open mind . . . . .
In my humble opinion no sense of a directional bias in the Short to Intermediate Time Frame and with this last section here with Holidays and light sessions I have no idea what will happen . . . . sure the “Santa” bias is there but even this past week we saw Distribution despite Rudolph’s pleas to the contrary . . . . who knows what happens this week and next . . . . light and nimble and quite heavy cash . . . .
No predictions . . . . consequently there are no predictions for 2026 . . . .
Mining Update
Please consider these are positions specific to a mining business I control via entity. I might be active long/short BTC direct and/or TradFi to hedge/trade with/against the mining business exposure.
Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.
If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.
UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).
UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.
TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP
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Alex Grey
Contemplation
