Let the market tell/show us what is next

Weekly Money Flow Analysis Chart above . . . . quick reminder . . . . . Orange Circles last 3x (including now) where Weekly MF jolted higher (sharp angle shown) when in a decisively Red status and what happened after . . . . both prior recent times a NEW LOCAL LOW (small Red Circles) did ultimately ensue in some form along with generally sideways and range bound action (sound familiar?) . . . . . April bottom see smooth transition of Weekly Money Flow PLUS a nice solid Green Candle and Volume Bar jump showing Accumulation PLUS Bullish Divergence on MF price setting new local lows with Money Flow flipping Bullish . . . . don’t have that now as of yet . . . . Translation: the Higher Time Frame Money Flow is very powerful . . . .

Weekly closes above/below $96Kish are significant in my view . . .

$91.3, $87.3, $86.6, $80.4, $78.5

$95-$97Kish, $102Kish

If price can’t hold call it $87Kish it may need to drop further to noted levels so that there is at least a chance of a bullish divergence to form on Higher Time Frames . . . . . does that occur at $78.5Kish????? . . . . we don’t know . . . market has to find locations where it can draw in more participants obviously right now it is an ugly chop fest . . .

CFTC news on collateral definitely very bullish . . . . as stated previously my view is inside the War we push hard on battles where we can win now . . . . BTC as collateral is one for sure and there is already momentum . . . . while we are at it just finally take over the entire payments infrastructure by using our own BTC to support Lightning (isn’t this the spirit we had years ago?) . . . . build the payment rails ourselves and then collect fees from it into perpetuity . . . . in a way it is very bullish looking at the Highest of Time Frames to see more and more savants eagerly line up to dance on Bitcoin’s grave . . . . always an option to simply ask some of them what they can or will actually do with a pile of gold (tungsten?) . . . .

Renowned “experts” such as gold bugs, self anointed geniuses, and Fintech gurus/influencers are rounding into peak form calling Bitcoin dead . . . . . perhaps it aligns with another flush to $78.5Kish where they can remind us all again how it is all over . . . . ask them how to use Gold or Silver as collateral (which would a LENDER prefer metals or BTC?) and in microtransactions and as a way to capture excess energy and convert it to value (arguably the most liquid value in the world at that) . . . . part of my point is in the midst of too many obsessing over current drama we are overlooking that in addition to SOV and other financial links Bitcoin is actually useful and functional in the modern society and only becoming more so . . . . . only thing my daughter talks about is YouTube you think I can convince her to check out the cable networks a few years from now?

One thing to always consider perhaps (and explains my constant awareness of hedging) is the VOL Gamma dynamics where “everything is awesome” when ES stays +/- say 1.5%ish . . . . all is well . . . when it breaks out of that (upside results in Spot Up VOL Up eventually) but a downside break can mean a 2% decline becomes an 8-12% decline within a couple sessions . . . . not exaggerating for drama . . . all is well when contained but air pockets beneath . . . . . .

Looks to me like SOMA got beefed up essentially just rolling over principals into bills . . . . would have seen ES up 200 points in a heartbeat if buying long end and expanding BS in my view . . . BUT this is a progression the Balance Sheet was declining for years now we have QT cessation . . . . POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) back in operation . . . . and we have BOMO for YCC (Bessent Open Market Operations) . . . . but still not currently expanding BS if so more reaction but hey maybe I’m wrong though it’s in the statement from NY . . . .

The pronounced Head and Shoulders forming in various Risk On assets is too obvious right . . . . I mean it couldn’t could it?

As mentioned a few times previously it’s not so much the 2026 numbers for AI Capex and the spillover that concern me as a lot of that is already in motion in more ways than one . . . . it’s beyond that because of hard stops on resources and materials to include power, electricity, water, and labor plus other materials . . . . so again show me the projections when you at least use reasonable resource projections . . . .oh this sexy new data center didn’t lease up for this reason . . . . oh don’t worry that OpenAI and NVDA didn’t actually sign an $100B agreement because the virtue signaling is what matters . . . . oh those aren’t delays due to resources they are just scheduling adjustments . . . . . oh the dog ate my homework . . . . . .

Junk debt sits right on it’s 10 Week EMA with Money Flow Red on the Weekly . . . .

ORCL a masterful example of why I am so skeptical of Low Volume rallies . . . Money Flow on the Weekly Red the entire time and this week reality set in big time . . .

Don’t know if “the market needs” a wipeout or flushing to set things straight (do see a healthier and more sustainable bull if/when investors get chances at much better entries) . . . my senses are that the ‘Melt Up’ is evolving as we speak and getting much more selective and shifting away from even caring about OpenAI and anything directly connected and more to the old fashioned blue collar stuff overall and the techie on power/energy/electricity/AI/Bitcoin/military/drones/rare earths/uranium . . . . seems so overdue to at least go below 50 EMA and test 200 EMA at some point here . . .

CLS and AVGO . . . . two of revised The Four Horsemen for AI Trade . . . . both smashed hard and closing well below 21 EMA . . . not below 200 EMA or 50 EMA . . . . AVGO down on absolutely monstrous Volume . . . . pretty solid punch to the gut of Risk On . . . . CLS #1 Rated Stock by Investor’s Business Daily for the ENTIRE market and a pure play on AI data centers . . . “a sinner once, a sinner twice, no need for confessions now, cause now you got the fight of your life” . . . .

Good news for the primary objectives here (finding the BEST longs for long term given the scenario and the ‘Melt Up’ but bear in mind we will be patient and persistent) in that the ‘Melt Up’ does indeed appear to me to be morphing and evolving and getting more selective . . . . . market showing at least until now it can take some hits to the AI space and not totally unravel . . . . equity action spreading out to more sectors and more securities . . . . . bullish overall on Higher Time Frames . . . .

Covered DEO beginning of week, still hold 3x modest Shorts (LINC, TAP, APEI - Education/Alcohol) and monitoring more for sure . . . very interested in private credit OWL still smells very much so to me . . . .

Still hold Longs and enhanced some a little bit but overall substantial cash . . . . what I am sensing might be gone is the “AI Chase” or that uber FOMO related to AI in terms of investing “running away before I get a chance” . . . . that might be gone market sent NVDA away and now dumped AVGO hard on absolutely massive Volume . . . . . so what’s the rush to get super extra Long . . . . I don’t use leverage . . . QQQ puts sprinkle Tuesday ever so slight (very rare for me, extremely rare actually) . . .

In my humble view still not sensing a strong directional bias either way for the very short term although Friday was ugly equities were not slaughtered across all sectors . . . . liquidity overall is improving . . . . what I would say is that the Higher Time Frame Money Flow, Accumulation/Distribution, and Up/Down Volume will quite likely have a LOT to say about the next major move in either direction . . . . and I mean they will have A WHOLE LOT to say about it . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short. Again currently Long BITU and SBIT more weight for sure on SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP

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