Meta boosted its AI budget to as much as $72 billion this year.

Google raised its estimate to $93 billion for 2025.

Microsoft is following suit, investing heavily in AI data centers and decision layers.

Let the market tell/show us what is next

Monthly Chart finally gets some Volume to show up . . . . . . it’s all Red . . .

Curious if $78.5Kish puts that MVRV Z-Score down into that Green Zone . . .

Here we go 82-85 bottle knock out 85.5 and clear $88.6Kish . . . . and into the 91-92 Zone which has much more resistance than everything combined from 82 . . . . and here we sit . . . market giving a lot of chances to set up hedges recently so whatever shakes out folks had their chances . . . .

$96Kish (95-97) sits above and is ultimately required if Bitcoin is able to show some Signs of Strength and avoid testing the lower bounds of old wounds (Volume Profiles) opened up recently . . . .

No reason to get excited at all from the Long side (in terms of ATHs or bullish action returning on Higher Time Frames) until 50 Week EMA (call it $102Kish it’s rolling over) is reclaimed and turned into support . . . .

There is an option for Bitcoin (and Risk On I would add) to show us they can face some challenges this coming week BUT reverse course from a local Higher Low which could alter things and POSSIBLY try and establish the low 80’s as the local/regional bottom . . . . possibly

I am very much aware QQQ could go up every single day right through to Powell’s post meeting comments . . . . and I am being serious . . . . that is absolutely plausible and we do have this vacuum of “Everything is awesome” where nobody can talk and we don’t have a lot of earnings reports or data to “mess it up” . . . . and yes the plan for the Santa Rally all sounds so cute and friendly . . . . wake me up when the market gives you everything for free and avoids Max Pain . . . .

Forgive me for hounding on this . . . . it was all setup moving from Restrictive to Neutral (literally exactly as Powell emphasized in Aug/Sep) . . . . . but the most important part was the directional move and path forward laid out NOT that “the Fed is printing” or “the Fed is easing” (this is IMPORTANT) . . . . and keeping all that ammo stacked in the shed . . . . this enabled Risk On to focus on Real Rates one year out and a path forward . . . . then Powell told us not to expect a pre-determined path while other Fed heads were literally jabbering Hawkish tones and directing the market back towards a firm 2% inflation target . . . . . now it is if they all came back from the Principal’s office and are saying “oh, oopsie, oh yes we should cut in December” . . . . . in my humble view this is a lot different from Risk On trusting a friendly Real Rates scenario one year out . . . . it is what it is . . . .

MSFT doing a bunch of the spending here banked on by perma-Bulls and looks to me like it is still well below that epic Shooting Star back in the summer . . . . and it added another dead weight weekly candle . . .

The group of stocks highlighted by IBD as buy candidates now all fine and good . . . . just jumps at me as not exactly a super exciting new group of growth leaders . . . . while many of the Leading Stocks continue to be choppy and/or below support . . . . . EXE also highlighted heck it might soar might be a decent trade RS is rising but reality is the Industry Group is still ranked 131st overall so again not an extremely exciting setup necessarily . . . . matches with my confused outlook . . .

Reverse Migration in my view will be kicked into full gear by the current Administration and also used to keep costs down and create more housing inventory for actual law abiding and credit worthy American citizens . . . . not politics for me simply reality . . . . this will have major ramifications in 2026 and 2027 in particular in my humble opinion . . .

“But you just haven’t grasped the New AI trade” . . . . . ahhh yes long GOOG with max lev . . . . I see . . . . . the obsession with GOOG is about cutting costs and avoiding fighting over NVDA’s chips . . . but what if the answer is not more chips but re-engineered chips so that AI can do more than simply tell us how it “knows everything” but can’t remember a damn thing or learn or develop . . . . . . my senses are still sniffing out how this all shakes out on spend (not so much 2026 but beyond that) when we have HARD stops on power/electricity . . . . . . look at NVDA Weekly and Money Flow it seems that the market is at least willing to consider my inquiries . . .

In a strong and healthy uptrend and Bull Market explosive growth stocks (i.e. Leading Stocks) are busting out of well formed bases and exploding to new highs . . . . . . we saw the Hedgies slam XLV up to massively overbought and they took the Med stocks up . . . . . . but was that a defensive trade or the start of a new Bull move lead by medical stocks . . . . end of the day IBD is listing Delta Airlines as a long candidate are you excited yet?

In my humble opinion my senses are clueless as to where we go in the Short Term and Intermediate Term (Longer Term and Higher Time Frames I like the potential setups coming) and sure the easy answer is “Santa Rally” but why aren’t Leading Stocks moving and why isn’t S Korea playing along (arguably the tip of the spear) . . . . . and where is the Volume and conviction?

For all of 2025 at this very Precise Moment my senses have the LOWEST sense of where things are headed . . . . . we COMPLETELY avoided the Feb-April meltdown and got modestly Short here and there . . . . then we got LONG in April when “tariffs will ruin everything” was clearly running out of steam on the charts . . . . . . now????????????????????? . . . . but my senses are STRONGLY guiding me to be cautious no reason to try and be a hero going long max lev for Santa especially if his sleigh breaks down mid-flight . . . . .

For now sticking with heavy cash and Longs and Shorts . . . . on very high alert to get more Short if this rally attempt tips over and can’t get back on its feet . . . . IF

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: SBIT sold last week as stated. Long BITU modest from there and sold this week. Bought BITU back again Friday and that is currently held against a bigger SBIT position. Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short.

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP

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