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Let the market tell/show us what is next

Obviously Bitcoin bounced back into very familiar territory and continued to bing bong around bouncing inside familiar Volume Profiles and off key levels after teasing and then being rejected yet again . . . . it is what it is

$95-$98K

$92K

In my view this latest rejection trying to go test the $117K level yes created yet another Lower High but also firmly keeps us for now in the regime where rips are faded and used to recalibrate hedges . . . . . . . .

Right here and right now in my view a great example of how important the Weekly Money Flow is and the boot on neck effect . . . . . Red Weekly Money Flow tends to keep the boot on the neck so when the horse does try to run a bit it’s tough to breathe and really get the juices flowing . . . . . conversely Green Money Flow on the Weekly is a helpful basket that can catch declining price action and support it on Lower Time Frames . . . .

Gotta fight through $111-$113Kish and flip it into support . . . . . . then after that ultimately that $117Kish sits there as the most critical test locally and in the current setup and scenario . . . . .

Liquidity looming below around $106Kish a blessing and a curse it’s awful tempting for the market to meander down towards that liquidity . . . . . but would THAT finally provide a real launch pad? Time will tell . . . . .

Leading IBD Industry Group Electric - Contract Manufacturing did have a good week and CLS followed through to the upside (FLEX had a productive week for sure) . . . . . ‘Melt Up’ hits this group right between the eyes this is bullish

Tech action in S. Korea and China continues to bang the drum supporting global growth poking its head above sea level

Powell opened up QT cessation for December and jawboned on cuts in my view in part to try and temper euphoria . . . . . the key at this point is posture and the ‘Melt Up’ simply not viewing the Fed as an obstacle . . . . I did not see that change this week . . . . Fed still ultimately supportive of Risk On

Perhaps the ‘Melt Up’ has its own course . . . . Like Mr. Wong perhaps suggests in Unknown Pleasures . . . . we gotta let the market try and tell us what it is . . . .

Repo watching, Blackstone and private credit deteriorations, and perhaps most of all half the US consumers already well into a deep recession . . . . . . so the ‘Melt Up’ one way or another has to discount these meltdowns . . . . but isn’t that potentially the same thing as front-running balance sheet expansion . . . .

Mega Cap Tech and Fed basically dominated the mindset this week . . . . spot up VOL up took a backseat Powell helped . . . . . let’s see the ‘Melt Up’ post this week and both the exuberance of investors vivaciously and blissfully paying up for calls over puts along with some credit interests being ignited in big tech and let’s see . . . . translation this coming week a solid test perhaps the focus away from Fed and Mag7 earnings and onto ORCL CDS and whether the market still stands firmly behind the $125B in debt “supported” for META . . . . . all while euphoric positioning sits at extremes . . . . .

ORCL CDS yikes . . . . . yes for now the ‘Melt Up’ seems to be plowing past it but this is not just a little thing here . . . . . . the literal viability of funding the ‘Melt Up’ along with literal/physical barriers/restraints on resources are two of the things we said ARE very much worth monitoring . . . .

Again . . . . the action in Leading Stocks (the real Leading Stocks not the ones discussed endlessly on CNBC) is generally bullish and one of the biggest things that makes me very, very reluctant to swing directly against the ‘Melt Up’ at this time . . . .

That said I am cranking up hedging efforts on single stock shorts we may not be that far away from more insanity in the Spot Up/VOL Up world . . . .

In my humble opinion upside bias remains until the indices are down big on big volume and closing at or near the lows for the day AND Leading Stocks are hit hard on big volume . . . and given the ‘Melt Up’ momentum we need to see Leaders absolutely throttled as there will be corrections and we still haven’t truly played with the 50 EMAs just some teases thus far . . . .

“Until tech credit spreads crack” . . . . . . and we actually have relevant data to watch here right now

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Green on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: SBIT holding.

TBT light (sold a chunk off Friday), UUP, SKRE light

Shorted SAM and covered modest profit. Sold half of SKRE at small loss. SAM just came out thumping their chest on their annual projections will monitor this little bump it got might be useful plus others.