This Is Not Investment Advice
Spooz Rate Cut Odds Dalliance . . . . Again Nothing Is For Free . . . . The Market Right Now
Another wild week that ends leaving Bulls seemingly clinging to the latest jawboning efforts from Doves . . . . . while Money Flow on Higher Time Frames continues to erode. Let’s see what happens.
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MOVE Weekly
In addition to JGBs tanking again we have seen Bond VOL in America get more of a bump than it’s gotten since February - around same time QQQ started to look like it was under Distribution.
Some interesting comments from a Friday article at Investor’s Business Daily:
From ZeroHedge.com on Friday:
Bitcoin Monthly
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Glassnode makes a solid point here about “elevated loss realization”:
$82K-$85Kish with yes that $88K level as well is what I am currently working with, and Glassnode seems to think that broad range $82K-$88K could define the next several months:
Liquidation Heat Map - Two Week Time Frame
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
Let the market tell/show us what is next
What is Max Pain . . . . . . possible scenarios rally to $108Kish or even $117Kish only to reverse and end up testing $74Kish . . . . . . impossible?
$95Kish-$98Kish
We need power . . . . we need lower credit risk . . . . long Bitcoin helps both . . . . .
Potential logical Lower Highs loom at $88Kish, $103Kish, and $108Kish . . . . meaning even a sharp rally up to those still does NOT necessarily flip everything bullish on Higher Time Frames . . . .
$74Kish, $78Kish
A more than welcome Sign of Strength would be first getting above $88Kish and then $103Kish and yes it looks like it’s a long ways away right now . . .
First task is to simply break $85.5Kish . . . .
Again the market already knows about TGA and yes M2 in aggregate is grinding higher guess what the market already knows about that as well and the incoming helpful regulations . . . . ask yourself what big cloud full of stormy weather is hovering above . . . . . .
Risk On/Off
Here are the Top Industry Groups from Investor’s Business Daily after this week’s action:
Here are the Bottom Industry Groups from Investor’s Business Daily after this week’s action:
Pretty thin trading in ES along with rising Equity VOL another reason in my view to lean towards caution the whipsaws can be even more extreme - good content from Zerohedge.com:
QQQ Weekly
QQQ Daily
HYG Weekly
HYG Daily
NVDA Weekly
PLTR Weekly
CLS Weekly
ORCL Weekly
CRWV Weekly
OWL Weekly
UTI Weekly
Covered. On Watch List. If it can rally up to some resistance on lighter Volume and the Daily/Weekly MF are at least rolling over or Red all else equal (depending on the trend of the overall market) I would likely Short it again.
Looks to me like the market doesn’t believe their forecasts.
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
Want to make sure I have this right . . . . the available jobs data was quite a bit stronger than expected . . . . . the BLS punted the next labor report and CPI beyond the Fed meeting in December . . . . meaning they won’t have the data for the meeting . . . . . . and rate cut odds surged higher more than 30 percentage points because an overtly presumptive Dove reinforced a Dovish view . . . . . . that one’s a head scratcher to me . . . . doesn’t necessarily change anything in my view with the market’s perception of real rates one year out . . . .
Fed Head trying to hammer the point that they want the market to for sure believe the Fed will work towards the 2% target . . . . that caught my attention . . .
Open mind as an investor (politics is a divisive waste of time to me) looks to me like immigration policy will be ramped up and up to 20M+ could be the end result . . . . . pressure on rents and consumption sounds Dovish . . . . might take a while for it to sink in . . . . . May/June the new Fed . . . . here we are with a bridge to cross . . . and this makes the drum bang even harder in my head about consumption from half or more of the country and how it adds up plus tariffs not causing inflation . . . Fed might not (vacations, Holidays) even have serious discussions with data until early January . . . .
Call me crazy there is a certain sense I’m getting of the troops being fired up to try and talk cut odds up enough to “save the year end rally” . . . . . for sure call me crazy . . .
Credit action is obviously awful ORCL and CRWV but the equity action starting to tell me more and more the market doesn’t believe . . . .
The Weekly Money Flow for NVDA is Red . . . . in fact it is very emphatically Red . . . reality
Leading Stocks like CLS and FLEX not collapsing but certainly not zooming forward to fresh new highs . . . .
My senses are strongly encouraging me to not lowball how big of a factor trust is right now . . . . . NVDA receivables rising as strongly as the Money Flow is oozing Red . . . . . trusting the shriek of the OWL . . . . Mr. Grey says we should use our Collective Vision to sniff this out . . .
Junk debt fighting up towards a juncture here my senses are telling me to watch a little more extra closely immediately this week . . . . . .
IBD and participants little debate on whether we are in a Correction already nonetheless . . . . assuming we were . . . . process . . . . . watching for a Day 1 of a Rally Attempt (Friday no good not enough Volume across the board or enough over all in my view) which preferably would be a huge up day on huge Volume . . . . then a Follow Through Day (tweak) on Day 3-10 for me on Day 3 or 4 the best . . . . when is the bottom . . . . . when we at least see a rally attempt . . . . .
In my humble opinion my senses are not aligning with any real directional bias either way on Lower Time Frames come Monday who the hell knows . . . . . on Higher Time Frames still Risk Off for me . . . . .
Mining Update
Please consider these are positions specific to a mining business I control via entity. I might be active long/short BTC direct and/or TradFi to hedge/trade with/against the mining business exposure.
Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.
If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.
UPDATE: SBIT sold Thursday was using prior lower highs and looking for 82-85. Let’s see what happens. BITU and SBIT and long/short Spot both in play now.
TBT light (sold a chunk off), UUP
Check recent posts for Single Stock Shorts
Alex Grey
Collective Vision
