This Is Not Investment Advice
Risk On Pops Off 21 . . . . . . More Carrots For Real Rates . . . . Bitcoin Vaults Back to Its Snuggle Blanket . . . . UST Asleep But Look Who’s Selling Oodles of Debt Soon
Two recent posts that may be of interest:
Regarding liquidity concerns and monitoring bank plumbing, here is a chart showing the Fed’s “Other” Repurchase Agreements . . . . . . . . look closely all the way to the right for a little burst there first one for real since the 2023 Regional Bank meltdown:
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ZeroHedge.com published another excellent full analysis on this current liquidity situation and the move from a handful of banks to call for the end of QT very soon.
Perhaps Powell does formally cease QT this coming week along with delivering one of the two remaining 25 BPS cuts the market expects for the rest of the year.
Let’s not forget . . . . . . someone or something has to pay for these absolutely colossal AI CAPEX forecasts (more excellent work from ZH):
Market about to see how much it can absorb on the debt side and how that jives with the ‘Melt Up’ all in the same week Powell talks QT and rates. These bond offerings “backed by AI” and the percolating liquidity gyrations are most certainly worthy of your attention in my view.
Bitcoin Monthly
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Some solid points laid out here by Glassnode:
Digging in to the recent bounce to the critical $113Kish resistance and point, Glassnode highlights how traders were willing to pay more for puts on the bounce:
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
Let the market tell/show us what is next
Weekly closes south of $108Kish are bearish for sure in my view . . . . . . . appears to not want to do that all that much which is not bearish but not necessarily bullish . . .
$111-$113Kish could very well lead us to either test $108K/$117K depending on whether it can at least close a daily candle above $113Kish
Powell halts QT officially does not mean Balance Sheet expansion but it also means no more balance sheet contraction - a net positive for liquidity
Might need consecutive weekly closes north of $117Kish to shake up the current regime . . . . . . . . an environment where rips are faded and used to recalibrate hedges . . . . above $117Kish market starts looking at “hmmm, it ain’t dead yet so how high can it go” . . . . .
Pushing out to higher Time Frames the Monthly doesn’t look all that bad . . . . . . would look delicious if we got Volume, Accumulation, and Money Flow . . . .
Perhaps my final comment on dilution and Treasury cos . . . . . one solution/option might help which is the King - cash flow . . . . mining . . . . . lending . . . . . STX not yet robust enough perhaps . . . . . get cash flow to buffer the tougher times and MAYBE the mNAV can rise above 1 when the gettin’ is real good and avoid total debacles and forced selling . . . maybe
Is the market currently fighting for block space? no . . . . . is the market currently fighting for uranium, silver, rare earths, other critical metals, and keystone AI plays? yes . . . . . .
Risk On/Off
Here are the top Industry Groups from Investors Business Daily after this week’s action:
Small tidbit of an observation - look how this steel producer benefitting from the tariffs is now suddenly talking about digging up some purported Rare Earths it claims it has. Maybe they succeed and maybe they do not, either way genie is out of the bottle on the “mission critical” aspect of Rare Earths.
Regarding AI Capex and the Bubble, see below for a recent reaction to earnings:
FIX is only one firm obviously, but they are involved with helping to cool down AI data centers and they just emphatically backed their 2026 outlook. New leadership and new Industry Groups working their way up the rankings is something I started talking about back in April with respect to an actual emerging new bull market.
QQQ Weekly
QQQ Daily
HYG Weekly
HYG Daily
NVDA Weekly
FLEX Weekly
EME Weekly
AGX Weekly
LEU Weekly
It’s possible I could do more sprinkling here. I like how it closed strongly way near the top of the Weekly range. Lower Time Frames I’ll see what’s up this week and watch quite closely. Higher Time Frame mindset the Volume just continues to build here.
“Mission Essential” and the Industry Group has been extremely powerful.
AMPX Weekly
DVLT Weekly
NB Weekly
VIAV Weekly
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
Core CPI certainly didn’t discourage anyone else from absorbing and digesting that real rates on the 1YR are negative
Perhaps it’s now flipped to bullish to have the “private credit thing” as the market knows where to look and what to look for as what appears to be undoubtedly the next private sector financial challenge shall we say
Hedging . . . . . . . . covered SAM . . . . . . . . more and more skeptical of the lev ETF space too many people in the same boat perhaps . . . . single stock derivs leading the way so single stock shorts as hedges after ‘Melt Up’ rips too much too fast (watch SKEW and Spot/VOL up days) . . . . . I’m not smart enough to battle the time decay with derivs . . . . .
BofA’s Hartnett, a credible and respected no nonsense voice, says sell triggers earlier in month hit with breadth overbought at 89% now down to 64% . . . . . . . . . vibes with my senses (just my opinion and view) that the Max Pain Trade is and continues to be to the upside in equities with a huge chunk of the pros sitting out . . . . . plus more wiggle room with the pros that are very well engaged in the ‘Melt Up’ not walking around with guns without ammo . . . . .
Very important group and discussed before multiple times . . . . . . . Electric - Contract Manufacturing . . . . . . . had a nice week BUT it did not burst through to new highs easily and all that aggressively and Volume was so so . . . . . . CLS reports Monday 10/27 VOL and price action can swing both ways fyi . . . . . market likely willing to play to a point wants to see the data from the top dog
Chinese tech stocks . . . . . . . . viewed through the lens of the ebbs and flows of trading . . . . . . could be rounding back to the upside
No predictions . . . . . IF . . . . . . and please let me use as much emphasis as possible . . . . . . . IF there is an end of year rip hard to pick a better time to start than just after these two nice Green Weekly Candles on the QQQ with Money Flow Green on the Daily and hovering on the Weekly . . . . . . again IF . . . . . HYG willing participant Money Flow Green on Daily and leaning on Weekly
Risk On and Daq in particular may already be past the point where it not only wants but needs new Leading Stocks to carry more of the weight . . . . . . . . . ponder perhaps the Weekly Money Flow for NVDA . . . . how many Ts can retail possibly carry on its back?
Ole PPT around to give NVDA a little 21 gun salute boom boom if/when it keeps going to rest there?
As stated before one of the big reasons why I am very, very reluctant to swing directly against the ‘Melt Up’ is that Leading Stocks (not the ones discussed endlessly on CNBC and among “experts”) . . . . . are hanging in there and even thriving in cases . . . . and I am trying to find all the holes and weaknesses as best as possible . . . . . Leading Stocks thus far are behaving well and there are several hundred smaller stocks doing very, very well
In my humble opinion upside bias remains until the indices are down big on big volume and closing at or near the lows for the day AND Leading Stocks are hit hard on big volume . . . and given the ‘Melt Up’ momentum we need to see Leaders absolutely throttled as there will be corrections and we still haven’t truly played with the 50 EMAs just some teases thus far . . . .
“Until tech credit spreads crack” . . . . . eyes on the mountain of debt headed towards the Daq . . . . .
Mining Update
Please consider these are positions specific to a mining business I control via entity. I might be active long/short BTC direct and/or TradFi to hedge/trade with/against the mining business exposure.
Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.
If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Green on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.
UPDATE: SBIT holding.
TBT light, UUP, SKRE light
Shorted SAM and covered modest profit. Sold half of SKRE at small loss. SAM just came out thumping their chest on their annual projections will monitor this little bump it got might be useful plus others.
Alex Grey
Contemplation
Excellent advice in my opinion sent out by one of the top guys at Goldman and kudos to him for emphasizing this:
