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Let the market tell/show us what is next

FA . . . . MSTR pressure valve and “doomsday loop” alleviated a fair amount . . . . now the bills in DC take a back seat to affordability initiatives . . . . more unknowns . . . .

Broadly speaking essentially we have a cruncher of an enigma . . . . will we get yet another push to another Higher High locally (say $102-$105Kish) . . . . and if that would be just another tease before resuming the trend shown with Monthly Money Flow . . . . or if that slow drip up to $96Kish was it . . . . meaning a macro Lower High is already in with a Bearish Divergence in motion . . . .

$91.3K

$93.7K

$96Kish

$83-88K

$85K

$80.5/$79.6/$78.5

As Glassnode has pointed out emphatically multiple times . . . . to break the ceiling there very likely needs to be a resurgence of spot demand . . . . an injection of liquidity . . . . in other words the Higher Time Frame Money Flow needs to turn convincingly and be sustained . . .

Was again specifically looking for Follow Through this week . . . . did not see that at the index level . . . . despite the Watch List performing well again . . . . market seems at a minimum a bit sluggish . . . . unwilling to crank it up a notch or a few . . .

Rate cut expectations for 2026 are plunging . . . . as we suggested here was entirely plausible since late October . . . . market’s perception of real rates a year out and shorter . . . coming back towards reality . . . . and Risk On has not yet plummeted as a result . . . . open mind . . . . is this more signal that the ‘Melt Up’ has recalibrated and doesn’t care . . . . unless it sees 5 handles on the ten year . . . .

Samsung Weekly above . . . . “tip of the spear” . . . . . South Korea . . . . . for me whatever on “SK is leading AI indicator” . . . . to me more if ‘Melt Up’ has recalibrated . . . . and the S. Korea and Samsung action is more of a “nuts and bolts” leading indicator . . . on the recalibrated Target List for the ‘Melt Up’ . . . . open mind . . . . this along with Leading Stocks and Watch List performing makes it very difficult to completely fade the bull case . . . . IBD snippet above shows how quickly the market can snap into “bullish action” . . . . yet find itself caged by the titans . . .

PLTR CEO specifically says “building batteries” as a high demand skill set moving forward . . . . interesting . . . Watch List has multiple battery plays . . . . .

Quagmire of unknown duration . . . .

Money Flow for QQQ Weekly is decisively Red . . . . .

If Space becomes a thing . . . .

Still seeing the two biggest risks to Risk On being a) rates and credit add in Japan as an extra Wild Card in particular any JPY/JGB/MOVE correlation, and b) dragging around the behemoths and titans . . . . both seemed to be in play even more this week . . . . commodities brewing and it’s broad across the spectrum . . . .

Watching very closely any lingering or dragging on here unwilling to pop . . . . keying some Industry Groups and Single Stock Short candidates as plausible hedges . . . . . earnings loaded week approaching Risk On on the edge Bessent knows it . . . . let’s see how it opens up . . .

My senses are that we are seeing more precision from the market and ‘Melt Up’ . . . . yet more and more I’m sensing hesitation and lack of conviction in aggregate . . . . on the one hand the ‘Melt Up’ may want some stocks to boom boom Right Here and Right Now . . . . but the overall market and Risk On look very sluggish and reluctant to me . . . . a huge up day on big Volume either Monday/Tuesday changes this . . . . but you know the more it keeps kinda dragging on the more it might want to test more 21/50 across the board . . . .

Perhaps the proverbial wall of worry is already in play . . . . the ‘Melt Up’ is gearing down on core resources . . . . Nation States are even more aware and must protect/defend themselves with economic growth and security . . . . but participants and market are digesting the very real possibility of ‘run it hot’ bumping inflation while the major averages languish trying to figure out how to consistently move higher “the leaders” with market caps measured in Ts . . . . quagmire of unknown duration . . . .

In my humble view would say in the very near term it’s a draw or toss up . . . . would say downside correlates highly with if/how much the Watch List and Leading Stocks get hit on notable Volume . . . . the Watch List looks to me like it is more than ready to run . . . but will it be allowed to run in the near term if 21/50 comes more into play across the board . . . . . could be we have some of the right horses well trained and rested for a great day of turf racing . . . . but the course got washed out by the rain and all the races are off the green . . . . so we need patience and to find some other races on the upcoming schedule that fit . . . .

Any move to Risk Off changes everything . . . . . that said . . . . seeking Industry Groups that are rising strongly, performing well, and/or holding up well . . . . stocks showing the best Relative Strength . . . . RS absolute basis yes but also RS improving pattern is nice . . . . very strong preference for very high Accumulation/Distribution Ratings and Up/Down Volume well above 1.00 . . . . and can’t be a mile above 21 EMA Daily for my possible entry . . . . . not easy . . . . 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Green on the Weekly. Defensive Posture remains until both are Green consistently and Bitcoin proves it with a series of Higher Highs locally at a minimum.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

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