Let the market tell/show us what is next

Finally made it up into the $95-$98Kish Key Zone to include snuggling $96.7Kish . . . . . biggest question now by far is if this $96Kish is yet another Lower High . . . . or does this provide the bump to and above the 50 Week EMA . . . . before the continuation of Higher Time Frame bearish trend . . . . . or if this sets up a retracement from here that ultimately leads to a strengthening of a potentially brewing bullish trend . . . .

Can’t break $92.3Kish or might go back to test the $83-$88Kish Zone . . . .

$95.2/$92Kish

Breaking $97.1Kish decisively and flipping to support might open the door to the 50 Week EMA at $97.5Kish . . . . incidentally the place of the high wick on the current Weekly Candle . . . .

$83-$88Kish

$80.5

Glassnode says the move to $96Kish was based on degen gambling fluff in essence . . . . . time will tell . . . .

$79.6/$78.5

Remains elusive and challenging frustrating many with Max Pain . . . . although this nice little rally brings us to $96Kish . . . . . there is certainly an element of “ok, now what” . . . . and we already see Daily Money Flow flip back to Red . . . . is a bearish divergence forming or already formed here . . . . time will tell . . . . .

Would say ultimately the Bullish case is building . . . . . but it may very well require a decent amount of back and forth first . . . . if that makes any sense . . . .

Equal weighted Spooz, small caps, and junk debt all look bullish to me . . . . . maybe I’m wrong . . .

Market’s perception of real rates a year out and shorter . . . . . starting to adjust more . . . how much does this connect to the lack of emphatic Follow Through . . . . open mind . . . . Powell approaching with R2K ripping . . . . . . market is a discounting mechanism . . . . and may not be whether Powell is Dovish . . . . . but rather if he is just not too Hawkish . . . . and MOVE sits still . . . . .

Emphasized two main risks to Risk On being rates/credit and the behemoths . . . . still the same . . . though MOVE and the market’s fondness of JGBs gettin’ smashed (yes Risk On likes this) . . . . leaves me intrigued about how the proverbial wall of worry could be quite useful for Risk On . . . . . open mind . . . .

Back to the 2019 QQQ analogy . . . . not sure if I could emphasize this enough . . . . it may not matter if we EVER get to “normal QE” . . . . and perhaps we don’t . . . . looks to me like any crazy wild card is in play . . . . . but whether this mop up duty is this or that . . . . . the market is looking at Right Here and Right Now . . . . . and that’s all that matters . . . . .

Narratives this and that . . . . what I'm sensing in terms of the ‘Melt Up’ . . . . is a shift even more towards the core resources . . . . . what is needed to compete economically . . . . . and protect oneself and hold influence in said hemisphere . . . . market is sniffing out those answers . . . . .

“Everyone is so bullish” . . . . . but bullish what . . . . . Wall St just spent “Santa Rally” bragging about how long Mag7 they are . . . bullish the old leadership yes overboard in my view . . . . .

Higher Time Frame Money Flow for small caps, junk debt, and equal weighted Spooz are all trending bullish . . . . market may be telling us it is willing to take on more risk . . . but demanding more reward . . . . . open mind . . . .

Geo-Poly seems like many want it to be more of an issue . . . . want it to cause problems to validate a narrative . . . . . but Right Here and Right Now the market apparently doesn’t care . . . . until it does . . . . in fact it may even be applauding it . . . . if it leads to stronger global growth it will definitely end up applauding it . . . .

Not sure if I can possibly emphasize this enough . . . . in my humble opinion . . . again the biggest question by far for Risk On is if the ‘Melt Up’ has indeed recalibrated . . . . and if it has established a refined Target List . . . . and if it is ready to fire . . . . smallies clearly look like they are ready to run . . . . . equal weighted charts look much more bullish than SPY/QQQ . . . . but that doesn’t tell me a definitive answer . . . . though it appears is plausible this is in motion . . . . but also plausible pulpy and droopy Mag7 can crash the party at any moment . . . .

Was specifically looking again for Follow Through this week . . . . . Watch List was getting cranked up all week with many doing quite well . . . . major indices kinda ho hum . . . . would say it was somewhat similar . . . . . it appears small caps and a broader group of stocks want to run . . . . . but will Mag7 rain on the parade . . . . I did not see emphatic Follow Through . . . . . quagmire of unknown duration . . . .

Risk On could have rolled over a few times this week . . . . . but it didn’t . . . but it also didn’t emphatically Follow Through . . .

In my humble view would say the path of least resistance remains to the upside unless Leading Stocks and the Watch List start getting hit on notable Volume . . . . . market lacking an emphatic Follow Through . . . . not sold we have a firm Upside Bias in place as of yet . . . . no predictions . . . . seeking Industry Groups that are rising strongly, performing well, and/or holding up . . . . . stocks that are showing the best Relative Strength . . . . RS absolute terms yes but improving pattern also very nice . . . . very strong preference for very high Accumulation/Distribution Ratings and Up/Down Volume well above 1.00 . . . . and of course can’t be a mile above 21 EMA Daily . . . . . not easy . . . . 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . . .

If Space becomes a thing . . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Green on the Weekly. Defensive Posture remains until both are Green consistently and Bitcoin proves it with a series of Higher Highs locally at a minimum.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

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