Let the market tell/show us what is next

Got a move to $91.3Kish . . . . even flipped that to local support and bounced from there . . . . . . was not able to get fully into the $95-$97Kish very critical zone . . . . . retreated from there again . . . . .

Does Bitcoin need a much stronger and more blatant Bullish Divergence . . . . . . keeps playing the Max Pain game and trying to bounce (or plummet) from the middle of no man’s land . . . . is back to $86-$87Kish enough . . . . or does it need more of a drop to set up a more appealing opportunity to more participants . . . .

$91.3

$86.2

$87.3

$93.5

$96Kish

$80.5Kish

$89Kish

$79.6

$78.5

Could bounce from $89Kish or $86Kish question is will either be enough to draw in more liquidity and change things on Higher Time Frame Money Flow . . . . .

End of the day . . . . . Lower and Medium Term Time Frame Money Flow keeps flipping Red/Green on 4HR and Daily inside this brutal chop fest . . . . . but Higher Time Frame Money Flow like the Weekly and Monthly is still trying to keep the boot on the neck . . . . .

Back in late October when I flipped to Risk Off . . . . . no follow through . . . . but also my senses were shifting that the far greater risk . . . was going lower from an AI Capex Daq rug pull . . . . . being caught with your trunks around your ankles when the tide was long gone . . . . from that vantage point . . . . . now has that changed where the risk is more to the upside?

Biggest threats/risks I’m sensing right now to Risk On are the following: 1) rates, but not immediate necessarily but creeping longer duration sniffing out commods and growth building, and 2) just mathematically lugging around the behemoths when in my view more opportunities are with small/medium but the titans drive/control sentiment . . . . .

That 2019 analogy above . . . . question is . . . . regardless of whether this current scenario is technically this or that . . . . . Fed Balance Sheet “expansion” shows up even if not a formal Asset Purchase program . . . . even if it doesn’t actually ever get to “normal QE” . . . . how does the market view it Right Here and Right Now . . . . that’s all that matters . . . .

QQQ Weekly looks a lot different now . . . . . Money Flow trending in bullish direction . . . . good bounce off 10 Week EMA followed by Upside Volume week . . . .

HYG looks bullish in my view . . . .

By far in my humble view the biggest question in the world for Risk On right now is if the ‘Melt Up’ has indeed recalibrated . . . . and if it has now set its sights on a refined list and group of targets . . . . and does the ‘Melt Up’ now have a much better sense of where to point the weapons . . . . and is it ready to fire . . . . big implications . . . . open mind . . . .

Back in October I started sensing a transition or recalibration was ultimately necessary . . . . it’s not for me to decide . . . . did this happen already . . . . most importantly does the market say it already happened and the ‘Melt Up’ can proceed . . . . open mind . . . .

Last couple weeks the Watch List and smaller/medium sized growth stocks have performed very well . . . why . . . is this some level of validation the ‘Melt Up’ is learning and isolating on more specific and targeted needs/solutions . . . . open mind . . . .

Positioning is rather modest . . . . longer duration yields can rise a bit more before Risk On perhaps is too agitated . . . . liquidity not of high concern currently . . . .

If Space becomes a thing . . . .

If the Ocean becomes a thing . . . . notice more Naval activity lately?

Regards to the biggest question listed above . . . . if the ‘Melt Up’ has loaded guns re-oriented on a refined target list . . . . do I or should I also consider refining and increasing the magnitude of certain plays . . . . .

Will be doing a lot of thinking on this . . . time with nature . . . walking . . . . lifting weights . . . . cycling . . . . boxing . . . . should I add extra emphasis anywhere . . . . suppose there’s not much bigger than the Ocean . . . . except perhaps for Space . . . .

Though I certainly deployed more cash last few weeks still holding a level less than 50% but well above 20% . . . . preserve capital #1 always . . . . want options for volatility on existing plays . . . . IF bullish persists then more new opportunities should also arise . . . .

Example . . . . . 10 EMA Daily PL and $19ish I’m in modest . . . would certainly add more if/when the market presents something and tells me to do so . . . . . .

Was specifically looking for Follow Through this week . . . . . would say there was an element of Follow Through this week though not overwhelming . . . . a huge up day across the board on big Volume would bring in a lot more Money Flow from the Pros in my view . . . .

In my humble view would say the path of least resistance appears quite likely to the upside unless Leading Stocks and the Watch List start getting hit on any notable increases in Volume . . . . . . not sold we have an Upside Bias per se yet in my senses but more Follow Through would provide more clarity . . . seeking Industry Groups that are rising and performing well and/or holding up . . . . stocks in these groups showing the best Relative Strength . . . . . strong preference is for very high Accumulation/Distribution Ratings and Up/Down Volume well above 1.0 . . . . and of course can’t be a mile above the 21 EMA Daily . . . not easy . . . . 75% of stocks follow the overall market trend . . . . .

Sold BTC vicinity $122Kish, about 30% of the stash held from mining was sold, sitting in cash earning. Remainder sold $116Kish. Current posture is very heavy cash, zero short term credit balance. UPDATE: Sold almost entire Bitcoin stash for the mining business. Very heavy cash earning. Zero short term credit.

If/when the Money Flow for Bitcoin turns Green emphatically on the Weekly, I have lots of bullish options. I could buy spot, buy more machines, long BITU, long forward hash, and/or hold onto mining rewards for a considerable amount of time before converting to fiat. My posture will change based on the Weekly and Monthly Money Flow. If both are Green, then all tactics deployed to hold BTC as long as possible before converting any to fiat. If just the Weekly turns Green then start leaning into this strategy. UPDATE: The Money Flow is Red on the Monthly and Red on the Weekly so defensive posture continues. I am very heavy cash, all the bills are paid, and zero short term credit. I can get more aggressive but am not as of just yet.

UPDATE: Moving forward from specific types of entry points I will likely be both Long and Short and may use ETH for mainly downside hedging. 12/16 sold majority of SBIT. I make adjustments throughout the week using various points and factors (Value Area High, Value Area Low, etc.).

UPDATE: Moved cash into SEP IRA and into Traditional IRA intended to long BTC when ready.

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