This Is Not Investment Advice

Private Markets Investing - Alternatives

A relevant reference point is this post here where I looked at a different firm on StartEngine.com.

Full Disclosure: I invested in StartEngine.com itself back in November of 2019.

Some ground rules please if you will be so kind as to allow me:

  • Every single move I make both in public markets and private markets (such as the one shown here) could end up being a complete and total failure

  • Unpredictable. . . . . . . . I'll drift off far, far away and do my own thing.  I might act very aggressively with certain investments and not as much with others.  I might explore something completely out of nowhere and unusual and ignore something "so obvious” to “everyone else”.

  • I'm very picky.  The earlier the better.  "Diversified" with these too much years ago initially.  SURVIVAL is the most important factor.  Not chasing an "AI Powered blah, blah, blah" already valued at $20B.  I am having trouble keeping up with AI and don't see any type of edge to play other than proprietary tools. In my view the focus on the energy and power infrastructure behind AI and Bitcoin is more fruitful and useful. 

  • If I don't understand it I'm out.  This happens a lot because I am not that smart.

  • Seeking winner takes all or most scenarios where a firm can slide into a position where it has a de facto lock on certain economic value within an ecosystem or industry.  It's hard to find these.  I do make other CF and A+ investments but will drop the hammer if/when I find a precise target (AtomBeam, Liquid Piston).

Pulling a few snippets from the company’s material merely highlighting some things that get my attention:

A lot more information is available here.

Thoughts and observations:

  • We have an established market for something that is big and relevant - skin cancer and the necessary diagnostics . . . . . though the technology can be applied to this market and others

  • Vita’s offering (though they will of course say it is the best) is indeed a different and unique approach to a chronic and critical problem currently served by a fragmented market with modest satisfaction levels . . . . . . hmmmmm this is intriguing

  • I ask myself “Will this business survive and exist in 5 years?” . . . . . . . find myself answering Yes to that here . . . . . .

  • Do I have an exit? . . . . . . . my feeble mind can envision a couple possible getaway cars on this one . . . . . particularly if/when the market can absorb/understand using this tech across other cancer diagnosis niches . . . . . .

  • In my view sales and distribution will be a massive challenge . . . . . and if you outsource you have hired guns selling a product to which they have no real genuine connection . . . . over time this may though just nudge everything towards M&A where a player with distribution can scoop this up and run with it . . . . .

  • Raise isn’t all that popular currently . . . . . I’m cool with that see above I drift off on my own a lot

  • Definitely needs to raise a lot more and in my view that is quite plausible given the hand they hold currently even if not ultimately from the crowd . . . . . . . debt on the BS is held by the CEO

I’m in. Small play. I play these light at this time but I will go much, much bigger IF I see something that my senses lead me to determining the combo of upside (from having a de facto lock on something) vis a vis the current scenario is worth a more aggressive swing.